No, she will not. Nor can anybody. Not once has the fed orchestrated a soft landing so why do you think it will happen now? Because its what they want to happen. Looks better on paper than admitting they are idiots and haven't got a clue. Like my Boss telling everyone we are all doing a great job... glass half full, glass half empty, when the truth is, we don't do a great job, but he can't say that. It would mean admitting failure.
I spoke to my investment advisor today, smart guy, smarter than me. The bond inversion is a serious threat, things are out of wack, but Bonds are starting to shine. He likes my somewhat large investment in bonds, and t-bills, and to add to this, we locked in a couple of 2 year GIC's paying 5.5%... I will let you now how this works out. bonds sucked just a month ago, nobody would touch them, now all of a sudden they are the goose, and the golden egg all in one... go figure.
Bond yields took a dip recently, making prices jump. Thats what we want to happen, but if money is pouring into bonds, then it has to come from somewhere. Oil? Equities? yes, all of the above. And lets face it, oil has been dropping now for several months, as China realizes they have stock piles of too much, and their economy did not bounce back as predicted. Just don' t need the stuff if nobody can't afford to drive.
The indicators spoken of in this article were all there in 2022, and have gotten worse, the big question is, What's been holding the whole thing together this long? Employment, and that is all, and employment is based on the health of companies, so bancruptcies are still low, and companies are not fireing anyone... but they are if you look closer at the numbers.
Our massive increase in populations in Canada tends to scew the numbers, we are not basing unemployment on the increase in population, and this increase is from adults moving here, not babies being born. And these people need jobs, to afford homes, which they can't afford anyway, as most of these people are unskilled labourers.
The Tech companies are all laying off workers, Microsoft is shuttering a large space it doesn't need anymore, and displacing the people. In BC all our Pulp industry is in free fall, with 80% of productin shutting down... the world just doesn't need as much paper anymore, and we can' compete with China.
And, we did it to ourselves, the Pine beetle, (which by the way, was around long before 1990, I worked for a mill in 1982, and we were concerned about Pine Beetle even then) Global Warmiing, and forest fires running rampant, have seriously dented the Industry in Canada, and predominantly British Columbia... So ya... double whammy this Christmas for those folks.