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the Nice lady at the bank NL@TB

Or in this case, a financial advisor that actually has something to say, more than just the usual Jack an Jill crap that they spew to all their mindless minions. So what do we get from this article, I will paraphrase what hes saying in boblish...

You likely don’t want to try and time the market, but you can still pay attention to when the business cycle might shift

isnt that the same as timing he market?

There are usually three stages to every economic cycle

ok thats not something the NL@TB usually suggests, it usually just, put your money in a Balance Fund ya Dufus, and dollar cost average, cuz thats all your brain can handle anyway...

Early stageTypically, interest rates come down in this phase, consumers and businesses start to borrow, employment rises, and gross domestic product (GDP) begins to expand.

things are getting better... this was the norm since 2009, and then during the Pandemic

Peak stage Here, the economy is humming along, with labour markets strong and demand for consumer goods hitting a high point. Prices and wages often start climbing, causing central banks to raise rates to combat inflation.

this sounds familiar... and oh boy, did they raise interest rates....

Late stageIn the last stage, economic growth slows, and consumer spending tends to drop, causing earnings forecasts – and stock prices – to decline. Layoffs may occur, and the word recession starts to creep into the conversation.

ok, so best 2 out of 3? The word Recession has been in the news a lot, but has not materialized, and stocks are good, so whats next? Bankrupticies? Forclosures? Layoffs?

and then... finally...

Central banks often start lowering interest rates to increase growth. This is the type of environment that tends to benefit slow and steady sectors, such as consumer staples, healthcare and utilities.

and we continue all over again...

And backing this, is the latest report from my financial analyst, that in a nut shell states, yes things are good, but muted...

  • the combination of high rates and restrictive lending standards is a recipe for a recession

  • the window of vulnerability that lies ahead will prove to be temporary

Not to pladurize too much, but it appears we are at the tail end of this economic roller coaster, so is now the time to be piling into Equities, just becase they have done well in the last 3 months? No, and this is where the muted advice from the Wealthy Barber and Warren Buffet come in... Play the long game, now is not the time to buy Gold, Silver, or Bitcoin. If you had Oil, or QQQ (Nasdaq) and your balance is off, now is a great time to examine it, and make a move to get it back in line with your investment horizon, your cash cushion requirements (if any) and your retirement plan. Everything needs to work together, and you need to be comfortable with it.

Yes we are optimistic that if a Recession Hits, it will be short term, based on the pent up demand left over from the Pandemic, but nobody knows what will happen in 6 months or 2 years... they have never gotten it right yet, so why should this time be any different. Economies can turn on a dime, it just takes one catalyst and boom... the sky is falling.

TBills, and Bonds were loved 20 years ago, and are back in vogue now, its not a hard choice to pay down your mortgage with money in a TFSA, and rebalance into some Cash, Tbills, GIC's and Bonds, specifically Gov Bonds to hedge against liquidation. And most of you are probably thinking about a cash cushion to buy that 63 Corvette you always wanted. (I used the money from a T-Bill to build my Dream Garage)

And a message to the gold bugs.... and I know your coming... Your not wanted here, and if I see comments on how gold is cash, bla bla bla... you'll be punted.

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